Early federal elections will take place in Germany this coming Sunday. This election is seen as pivotal for the country's future. Compared to the past decade, the circumstances are entirely different this time: While the Christian-conservative CDU/CSU, with chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz, enters the race as the clear favourite, numerous domestic and foreign policy factors are currently shaping German politics.

Domestically, the country is divided - heated debates and a highly polarised atmosphere dominate the discourse. Far-right agitation plays a central role, further intensifying tensions. Additionally, active US influence on the election campaign has sparked discussions.

On the international stage, the global system is undergoing a fundamental shift. Since last weekend’s Munich Security Conference, this should be clear to all German politicians. Against this backdrop, voters bear a special responsibility: Their decision on Sunday will significantly determine the course Germany takes in the future.

Rising Support for the AfD

Since 2017, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has been represented in the Bundestag. The subsequent 2021 election and the upcoming vote show that the AfD has firmly established itself in Germany's political landscape. With around 20 percent in the polls, it currently ranks second behind the CDU/CSU, surpassing the governing parties SPD, Greens, and FDP. The FDP, in particular, is under pressure - it is struggling to secure re-entry into parliament, as some polls place it below the five-percent threshold.

But why are so many citizens dissatisfied with the current government, and why are more and more voters turning to the AfD?

“The AfD benefits from a general climate of crisis, fueled by a mix of objective facts and subjective perceptions,” explains political scientist Uli Bruckner, professor at Stanford University’s Berlin Center, in an exclusive interview with TRT World. According to Bruckner, objective factors include the war in Ukraine and Germany’s weak economic performance. Subjective elements, on the other hand, include the “glorification of the past,” growing “fear of the future,” and a sense of “being left behind” among the population.

This feeling of “being left behind” is particularly widespread in eastern Germany. According to economist Joachim Ragnitz from the Ifo Institute, voting behavior is largely shaped by the East-West divide. Dissatisfaction with the government—especially regarding migration, energy, and climate policies - is driving many voters toward the AfD. The party is particularly strong in “transformation regions” undergoing industrial change, where fears of job losses are high. According to the German Economic Institute (IW), AfD support is growing in regions with an ageing population, high youth unemployment, many small businesses, and a significant foreign-born population.

“The AfD is more popular among men than women. In terms of age groups, the party finds its strongest support among 45- to 59-year-olds, while younger and older voters are less inclined to vote for the AfD,” political scientist David F. J. Campbell, a lecturer at the University of Vienna, told TRT World in an exclusive interview.

Furthermore, Bruckner criticises the party’s strategy: “The AfD successfully pushes the narrative of the 'failure' of the 'established parties' and fuels emotional debates instead of presenting concrete and practical solutions,” he told TRT World.

External Influence from the US

A key topic in the political discourse ahead of the federal elections is the so-called “firewall” against the AfD. Until now, any cooperation with the party was considered taboo. However, the vote on the so-called Migration Limitation Act in early February, which was ultimately rejected, highlighted how heated the domestic political situation has become. Within the CDU, the debate caused tensions, as not all party members supported the migration law. The pressure from the SPD and the Greens was immense - both parties issued strong warnings against breaking the firewall.

But that was not the end of the story. External actors are playing a significant role in this election. While Russia is frequently accused of interfering in domestic affairs, it is now the United States that is actively influencing the German election campaign. “Trump’s team is actively interfering in the German election campaign in favour of the AfD,” Bruckner told TRT World.

One striking example of this was the interview between US tech billionaire and X owner Elon Musk and AfD lead candidate Alice Weidel in January. The level of American interference in Germany’s ongoing election campaign is remarkable. Unlike other candidates, Weidel was given the opportunity to present herself on an international platform alongside one of the most influential figures in the world. But the involvement did not stop there - Musk later joined a live AfD campaign event, openly expressing his support for the party. His message to Germans was, in essence, that they should not be ashamed of their identity and history.

“How exactly Musk’s endorsement of the AfD will impact the election remains difficult to predict,” expert Campbell told TRT World, emphasising Musk’s role in the campaign.

Farewell to the Firewall?

Another influential figure from the US is Vice President JD Vance. His speech at the Munich Security Conference last weekend caused significant turmoil in German politics. In his first international address as vice president, Vance stated that the greatest threat to Europe did not stem from military aggression by Russia or China but rather from EU governments themselves - specifically their efforts to exclude far-right parties from governing. “There is no place for firewalls,” Vance declared, adding, “If you run away out of fear of your own voters, America cannot help you.” Following his speech, Vance met with Weidel at a hotel. As in the past two years, Weidel and the AfD had been explicitly uninvited by the conference organisers.

The reaction from leading German politicians was – unsurprisingly - one of outrage. Chancellor Olaf Scholz was among the first to sharply criticise Vance’s remarks. “Due to our history with National Socialism, democratic parties in Germany share a common consensus: the firewall against far-right parties,” Scholz wrote on X. CDU leader Friedrich Merz also voiced disapproval of the US vice president’s statements. “This is almost an overbearing approach toward Europeans, especially us Germans,” Merz told RTL and ntv.

“The official Germany seems somewhat uncertain about the appropriate response to these American statements from across the Atlantic. Germany needs to develop a solid strategy, and key actors must find a way to communicate that is firm yet also carries a touch of humor,” political scientist David F. J. Campbell told TRT World, criticising the stance of Germany’s political establishment.

Given recent developments - the AfD potentially becoming the country’s second-strongest party, the rejection of the Migration Limitation Act, and active US interference in the German election campaign - it is questionable how much longer the firewall against the AfD can hold. Public dissatisfaction with the established parties has reached a level that can no longer be ignored. At the same time, external pressure is mounting, which could grant the AfD additional legitimacy.

Germany’s Uncertain Future in the Global System

While Germany grapples with domestic challenges such as the rise of right-wing extremism, migration issues, and social concerns in education, pensions, healthcare, labour shortages, and demographics, the international situation remains uncertain. At the same time, the US and Russia are edging closer against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy meets with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara. Meanwhile, the EU - and with it, Germany - must watch as its international influence continues to wane.

Since the beginning of the Ukraine war, the EU has struggled to maintain unity and decisiveness. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has repeatedly resisted the EU’s Ukraine policies.

The election of right-wing populist Giorgia Meloni in Italy - one of the EU’s founding members - also signals a weakening of European cohesion. With the rise of right-wing populist parties in France, the Netherlands, Austria, and Germany, the EU’s instability is increasing - even though these parties have not yet entered government in their respective countries. “It is becoming increasingly difficult to formulate and defend a common European position.

Euroskepticism is no longer about the constructive search for better European solutions; instead, the EU is increasingly being portrayed as part of the problem, delegitimised, and discredited,” political scientist Uli Bruckner told TRT World, highlighting growing concerns about Europe’s future.

Similarly, Campbell questions the unity of right-wing populist parties: “Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National (RN) is the driving right-wing populist force in France. But even for Le Pen, the AfD is too far to the right, which is why the RN decided to end its cooperation with the AfD in the European Parliament”, he explained to TRT World.

Ultimately, it is clear that Germany is not facing an ordinary Bundestag election this year as it has in past decades. The world is undergoing a geopolitical shift – Zeitenwende - and the German people must make a decisive choice for their future at this crucial moment.

The political landscape has fundamentally changed, both domestically and internationally. Right-wing populism has gained a foothold in Germany. “If the AfD were to lead a German government, it could result in the collapse of the EU - either due to deepening antagonisms or because an AfD-led Germany would actively seek to exit the EU,” political expert Campbell warned.

Instead of denying this reality, political leaders should develop solutions. Otherwise, Germany could find itself stuck in a dead end, overwhelmed by domestic challenges and falling behind on the international stage.