"The walls have ears." For many middle-aged Lebanese people, this chilling phrase reflects the pervasive fear that defined life under the Syrian regime.

Arbitrary arrests, disappearances of political dissidents, and the constant threat of violence created a culture of fear within Lebanon that was enforced by neighbouring Syrian authorities.

Syrian forces first entered Lebanon on June 1, 1976, claiming to act as peacekeepers in the Lebanese Civil War, which had begun a year earlier. However, their presence stretched well beyond the war’s end, with Syria exerting significant military and political control over Lebanon for nearly 30 years.

Checkpoints manned by Syrian forces were clustered across Lebanon, censorship was rampant, and arrests made by the Syrian army targeted mostly communities loyal to imprisoned Christian leader Samir Geagea, exiled Army General Michel Aoun, and Sunni strongholds like Tripoli.

The Taif Agreement

The Lebanese Civil War officially ended in 1990 after the signing of the Taif Agreement in 1989, which sought to bring peace but instead cemented Syrian dominance over Lebanon.

The agreement introduced key reforms, including a shift in executive powers from the Maronite President to the Sunni Prime Minister, ensuring a more balanced distribution of authority.

It restructured Lebanon's sectarian political system to guarantee equal representation between Christians and Muslims. The agreement also called for the disarmament of militias, though Hezbollah was notably exempt, as it claimed to resist Israeli occupation.

The agreement stipulated a phased withdrawal of approximately 14,000 Syrian forces, but it granted them temporary authority, which they leveraged to entrench their control over the country.

While Israel occupied the south, Syria extended its dominance across the rest of Lebanon, including its economy. Post-war reconstruction saw the division of wealth among warlords and political elites, orchestrated by Syrian authorities.

Rafik Hariri's assassination

During this time in the 1990s, Rafik Hariri, a businessman turned Prime Minister, sought to rebuild Lebanon into a strong, independent state capable of outgrowing its occupiers.

His vision, however, put him on a collision course with Syria. Hariri's support for UN Resolution 1559, which called for the withdrawal of all foreign troops from Lebanon and the disarmament of militias, ultimately marked him for assassination.

Hariri's killing on February 14, 2005, by Hezbollah member Salim Ayyash, shocked the nation and ignited the March 14 movement, a mass uprising demanding the end of Syrian hegemony. On April 26, 2005, under immense domestic and international pressure, the Syrian army withdrew from Lebanon.

This moment of triumph was not universally celebrated. For some Lebanese, particularly those who had prospered under Syrian rule, the withdrawal felt like an abandonment.

During Syria's nearly three-decade presence in Lebanon, many benefited from the stability and patronage networks it provided, which facilitated business growth, political alliances, and economic opportunities—albeit often favouring those aligned with Syrian interests.

The power vacuum left by the Syrian army’s departure in 2005 was quickly filled by Hezbollah. Hezbollah had been established in 1982, initially as a resistance movement against Israeli occupation in southern Lebanon.

However, it remained outside Lebanon's formal political system until the 1992 parliamentary elections. These elections, marked by a widespread Christian boycott and the exile or imprisonment of their political leadership under Syrian pressure, paved the way for Hezbollah to enter the government.

By participating in political life, Hezbollah transitioned from a purely militant resistance group to a significant political force.

The Syrian Revolution

Between 2004 and 2013, a series of political assassinations swept through Lebanon, targeting anti-Syrian figures such as journalists Samir Kassir and Gebran Tueni, as well as politicians Pierre Gemayel and Mohammad Chatah.

By 2011, as the Syrian revolution began, the March 14 movement aligned itself with Syrian opposition groups, calling for an end to Bashar al-Assad's regime.

Amid the ensuing civil war, over two million Syrian refugees fled to Lebanon, placing enormous strain on the country's already fragile infrastructure. Despite the Syrian regime's fragility in 2012, Hezbollah, assisted by Iran's Revolutionary Guard, intervened militarily to ensure its survival.

This deepened Lebanon's entanglement in regional conflicts, solidified Hezbollah's dominance over Lebanese politics, and prolonged Assad's reign.

Twelve years later, on October 7, 2023 following the Hamas-led attacks on Israel, Hezbollah declared its support for the Palestinian resistance group under the banner of "Unity of the Fronts."

This move would prove disastrous. Over the course of this past year, Israeli strikes have decimated Hezbollah's leadership, significantly weakening its influence. The Syrian opposition, emboldened by these developments, advanced from Idlib to Aleppo with little resistance, eventually toppling the Assad regime this month.

Lebanese presidency

This will have a monumental impact on Lebanon. On January 9, 2025, the country is poised to make history with its presidential election, the first since the end of the civil war to occur without Syrian political interference.

For decades, Lebanon's presidents were chosen under a system that required Syrian approval, with the regime often bypassing the Lebanese constitution to extend presidential mandates.

This upcoming election symbolises a hard-won reclamation of sovereignty and democratic agency, giving Lebanese MPs the opportunity to freely elect their president for the first time in modern memory.

The collapse of the Assad regime has not only removed Syrian influence from Lebanese politics, but also reopened painful wounds for many Lebanese. Thousands of families are still haunted by the fates of loved ones who vanished at Syrian checkpoints or perished in detention centers.

The release of prisoners exposed the regime's brutality, offering closure to some while renewing grief for others who continue their search for answers.

A weakened Hezbollah has further opened the path for democratic progress in Lebanon. Since the end of Michel Aoun's presidential term in October 2022, Hezbollah and its allies in parliament, including the Free Patriotic Movement and Amal Movement, have paralysed the political system by obstructing the election of a new president.

While Hezbollah retains a political presence, its military influence has significantly diminished following the collapse of its supply chains in Syria and bases in Lebanon. This shift has been welcomed by pro-Syrian revolution forces in Lebanon, who see it as a chance to loosen the group's grip on the country's institutions.

If this new leadership in Syria can maintain its commitments, it could pave the way for a historic shift in Lebanon-Syria relations, fostering trust and cooperation after years of hostility. The transition also offers both nations an opportunity to rebuild, with Türkiye’s governance model and economic development serving as potential points of reference.

Nevertheless, achieving lasting peace and stability will require careful attention to transitional justice and accountability. Both countries must ensure that the pain of the past is not forgotten, but instead used as a foundation for a more just and inclusive future.