By Ian Proud

On January 1, Ukraine stop di transit of Russian gas to Europe, end 34 years of almost steady supply since Soviet Union collapse. Some people for di West dey celebrate am as victory over Russia.

But di real winner fit be Türkiye, as di Southern Corridor – one 3,500 km-long route wey dey carry natural gas – don dey more important for European industries wey dey face wahala of high prices and low productivity.

To talk true, di sale, buy, and supply of gas or any other commodity na business matter. But for di West, dem don politicise Russian gas for long, especially since di Ukraine crisis start for 2014, wey later lead Moscow to launch wetin dem call “special military operation” against Kiev for 2022.

Ukraine recent decision to stop di long-time gas supply route to Europe na just another small twist for di whole drama. E no go really affect Russia big time, even though Poland Foreign Minister dey call am victory.

Gas, like oil, dey go where demand dey. Di war for Ukraine don make Russian oil supply to India increase well well, and dem still dey grow di gas supply to China. At di same time, Russia don increase LNG exports to Europe to replace di cheaper piped gas.

Di numbers no dey lie. Export data show say Russia economy never weak like dat, even though e don face big wahala. Since 2014, Russia dey export about $420bn worth of goods every year, and two-thirds of dat na oil and gas. Even after di big profit year for 2022, Russia still dey maintain di trend for 2023 and e fit continue for 2024.

Winners and losers

Di two biggest losers for dis matter na Transnistria for Moldova and Slovakia. Transnistria dey depend on Russian gas wey dey pass Ukraine to power one big station wey dey supply about one-third of Moldova electricity. Now, dem go need talk with Moldova government to solve di energy wahala.

Slovakia own matter serious too. Zelenskyy decision fit make Slovakia and Hungary block Ukraine from joining NATO and EU. Di wahala don show how short-term thinking dey affect di Ukraine war.

Ukraine go lose up to $1bn per year for gas transit fees. Back for 2014, dem dey collect about $3bn per year, and dem no wan lose dat money. Even for 2024, dem still dey think of swapping Azeri gas for Russian gas to keep di transit income.

Slovakia dey try find other gas sources for di winter, but e go cost dem more. Prime Minister Robert Fico don warn say di decision to stop gas transit go hurt EU pass as e go hurt Russia.

Europe don turn dia back on Russian piped gas, no matter di cost. Di political wahala fit make voters abandon centrist parties for far-right or hard-left ones. Russia no dey di first choice for gas supply again.

Since 2014, di number of gas pipelines from Russia to Europe don reduce well well. Di Nordstream pipelines, Yamal Pipeline, and di Ukrainian gas transit don cut about 185 bcm of yearly piped gas supply. LNG imports into Europe don triple since 2014.

LNG imports from US now dey make up almost 50% of di total, but e dey more expensive pass Russian piped gas by 30-40%. Di reason na di big profit wey trading companies dey make for Europe.

Advantage Ankara

Di big question now na how Europe go balance dia gas supply to reduce prices and improve dia economy. Dis na big opportunity for Türkiye. Di Southern Corridor and Turkstream dey grow well well, and Türkiye fit become di main transit point for gas to Europe.

Russia claim say Ukraine try attack Turkstream infrastructure with drones. Di Southern Corridor and Turkstream dey provide gas from different places like Iraq, Azerbaijan, and Russia. Türkiye fit use dis chance to create better contracts with Europe.

Türkiye dey for di middle of Europe and Asia, and e fit become di most important energy partner for Europe for dis new world order.

SOURCE: TRT World

Ian Proud na former British diplomat and author of A Misfit in Moscow: How British Diplomacy in Russia Failed.